Determination of the minimally important difference (MID) in multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA) test scores: impact of diurnal and daily biomarker variation patterns on MBDA scores

Abstract

The Multi-Biomarker Disease Activity (MBDA) score is a validated rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease activity measure based on 12 serum biomarkers. Here, we evaluate short-term biological variability of MBDA scores to determine the magnitude of change that might be considered clinically meaningful. Twenty-eight adult seropositive RA patients with clinically stable disease and no changes in RA medications for 4 weeks prior to study were enrolled. Nine serum samples were obtained over four consecutive days (non-fasting). MBDA score variation was assessed day-to-day (daily) and within 24 h (diurnal). The standard deviation (SD) of MBDA scores was calculated by a linear mixed model including random effects for patient, day, and time of day. The minimally important difference (MID) was calculated as {z}_{0.95}sqrt{2times mathrm{total} mathrm{variance} mathrm{of} mathrm{MBDAs}} . A subgroup analysis was performed for patients with active RA (moderate or high MBDA score). The SD of MBDA score change in the full cohort was 4.7 in a combined daily-diurnal variation analysis, which corresponds with an MID of 11. The SD of MBDA score change in the subset of patients with active RA (moderate/high MBDA scores) was 3.6. This corresponds with an MID of 8 units in patients with active RA for whom clinicians are most likely to need guidance with respect to therapeutic decisions. Changes in MBDA score ≥ 8 represent a change in RA disease activity that clinicians can use as a benchmark for therapeutic drug efficacy and can be incorporated into a treat-to-target strategy.