Determination of statistical data of conditional probabilities of the technical condition of internal combustion engines when compiling the Bayes diagnostic table

Abstract

One of attractive methods for in-place diagnostics of internal combustion engines is the method based on using the generalized Bayes formula of conditional probabilities. The article is devoted to the applicability improvement of the Bayes algorithm for assessing the technical condition of internal combustion engines. The use of this algorithm involves the compilation of a diagnostic table, the elements of which are conditional probabilities of selected diagnoses in case of a range of faults. Their relevant determination requires a large amount of statistical data, which is often lacking. To supplement deficient data and increase the reliability of obtained results, the authors propose to use a method for simulating patterns of changes in design parameters of the technical condition of internal combustion engines depending on operating time.