Abstract
A method is demonstrated using Monte Carlo simulation (stochastic modelling) techniques that allows the extraction of information about design earthquakes that constitute the most likely combinations of earthquake magnitude/epicentral distance that would actually generate the computed hazard ground motion at a site of interest, taking into account the log-normal scatter in the attenuation relationship. A worked example, at three different return periods, is shown for a realistic case in Greece. The results demonstrate the range of events that may contribute to the hazard, from which median or modal values can be derived. This method should be very useful in cases where it is desired to select earthquake time series representing the hazard for engineering analyses. In the example shown, the most probable magnitude/distance pairs are those that would produce predicted deterministic acceleration values of about half the design ground motion.
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