Determinants of School Dropouts and the Impact on Youth Unemployment: Evidence from Ethiopia

Abstract

Despite significant youth school dropouts in Ethiopia, the household characteristics that contribute to dropouts and the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment remain unclear. To fill this gap, this study analyzes the factors that influence youth dropouts and evaluates the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment in Ethiopia using data from the 2019 World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture. We employ endogenous switching regression to estimate the impact of youth dropouts on the likelihood that a household has unemployed youths and the number of unemployed youths in the household. The findings reveal that different parental characteristics such as age, education, and whether parents live together are negatively associated with the probability of youth dropouts, while households with a Muslim head are more likely to have school dropouts than Orthodox-headed households. Households who have multiple income sources, are located in rural areas, are located far from the school, and have disabled family members are also found to be more likely to have youth dropouts. In addition, our findings reveal that youth dropouts increase the probability of having unemployed youths in the household and raise the number of unemployed youths in the household. The study’s findings highlight the need for considering households’ characteristics and other factors associated with youth dropouts when developing educational interventions to reduce youth dropouts in Ethiopia. Furthermore, investment in parental education and infrastructural facilities such as roads and schools could reduce youth unemployment in Ethiopia, particularly in rural areas where public schools are the only option.