Abstract

The present paper aims to examine the relationship between the exchange rate (EXCH) and some macroeconomic variables (inflation rate, economic growth, interest rate and money supply) in the State of Serbia during 2002-2022 using the ARDL distributed lag model. By estimating the model in both the short and long run, it was found that there is an equilibrium correlation in the long run and a mechanism to correct the error given the error correction coefficient (negative and significant). According to the short and long-term estimates, all variables have a significantly negative correlation with the dependent variable (EXCH) except economic growth, which has a positive correlation.

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