Abstract
ABSTRACTThis study aims to explore macroeconomic factors that affect non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia. The research data are non-oil and gas export data, Gross Domestic Product, inflation, US dollar exchange rate, foreign direct investment in the 2010-2019 period published by Bank Indonesia statistics. The research method uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis with the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) stationary test, Johansen's cointegration test, Granger causality test, Error Correction Model. The results showed there was a cointegration relationship between all dependent and independent variables, a direct relationship with the US dollar exchange rate and inflation on Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Product on exports. In the short term Gross Domestic Product, inflation, exchange rates, and foreign direct investment have no significant effect on non-oil and gas exports. In the long run, Gross Domestic Product has a significant effect on non-oil and gas exports.Keywords: non-oil export, macroeconomy, cointegration, causality, error correction model
Highlights
PENDAHULUAN Indonesia memiliki sumber daya alam dan sumber daya manusia yang potensi komoditas nonmigasnya berkembang luar biasa
This study aims to explore macroeconomic factors that affect non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia
The results showed there was a cointegration relationship between all dependent and independent variables, a direct relationship with the US dollar exchange rate and inflation on Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Product on exports
Summary
ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengeksplorasi faktor makroekonomi yang mempengaruhi ekspor nonmigas di Indonesia. Data penelitian yaitu data ekspor nonmigas, Produk Domestik Bruto, inflasi, kurs US dolar, investasi asing langsung pada periode 2010-2019 yang dipublikasikan oleh statistik Bank Indonesia. Metode penelitian menggunakan analisis Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dengan uji stasioner Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), uji kointegrasi Johansen, uji kausalitas Granger, Error Correction Model. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan terdapat hubungan kointegrasi antar semua variabel dependen dan independen, hubungan searah kurs US dolar dan inflasi terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto, Produk Domestik Bruto terhadap ekspor. Pada jangka pendek Produk Domestik Bruto, inflasi, kurs, dan investasi asing langsung tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor nonmigas. Produk Domestik Bruto berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor nonmigas. Kata Kunci : ekspor nonmigas, makroekonomi, kointegrasi, kausalitas, error correction model
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