Detection of long-term trends in global stratospheric temperature from NMC analyses derived from NOAA satellite data

Abstract

Since 24 September 1978 global daily fields of temperature and geopotential height at 8 stratospheric pressure levels 70 to 0.4 mb (18–55 km) have been produced at the U.S. National Meteorological Center. Temperature profiles derived from NOAA operational satellites constitute the sole data source for the upper stratospheric levels 5, 2, 1, and 0.4 mb (35, 42, 48 and 55 km). Significant changes in upper stratosphere reported temperatures have accompanied each of the eight changes in either operational satellite or method of data processing. Comparisons with rocketsonde data from 1978 to 1986 show bias changes of 1 to 5 Celsius degrees at various levels. For detecting long term trends of ambient stratospheric temperature, adjustments based on rocket comparisons must be applied to the NMC fields. Lack of data at north polar latitudes and in the southern hemisphere limits comprehensive characterization of temperature uncertainty. We discuss in detail our ability to characterize temperature uncertainty of the NMC stratospheric analyses. We specifically discuss our ability to detect a trend in the middle stratosphere temperature of about 1.5 celsius degrees per decade, the amount of change indicated likely by current theoretical models.