Detection of Climate Change in the Kedungsoko Irrigation Area – Nganjuk, Indonesia

Abstract

Rainfall is one of the main components in discussing climate where there is a complex process in it. Rainfall has a dynamic characteristic, and it is not fixed along the season period. The change in rainfall intensity has commonly happened. However, if the change has extremely different, it will indicate climate change overall. The rainfall change can impact the agricultural sector because dropped rainfall will affect the crops. Too many rainfalls will cause flooding and rotting plants. However, too little water also causes nutritional deficiency in the crop and causes crop failure. The crop failure in the Kedungsoko Irrigation Area-Nganjuk-Indonesia is due to climate change, such as the extreme rainfall dropping there. In this research, the climate change is mainly related to the season shift for arranging the cropping pattern in the research area. The potency of events like that can reoccur in the future. This research intends to analyze the climate change in the Kedungsuko Irrigation Area statistically. In addition, this research aims to investigate the season shift based on climate change. The methodology uses parametric and non-parametric statistics. Based on the extreme analysis by using the parametric method (F-test and T-test) and non-parametric method (Mann Kendall test), it is obtained the prediction of the extreme rainfall that is likely to happen in the future is in January and December. It is hoped to become the consideration for anticipating the same undesirable event in the Kedungsoko Irrigation Area.