Secular variation in rainfall and intensity–frequency–duration curves in Eastern Australia

Abstract

Rainfall intensity–frequency–duration curves are used extensively for storm runoff estimation. It is generally assumed that rainfall intensity would increase with global warming irrespective of the underlying changes to rainfall. This study analyzed rainfall and temperature from six sites in Eastern Australia. Two non-overlapping 30-year periods with the greatest difference in the mean annual rainfall were selected at each of the six sites to test for significant changes in the mean annual temperature and rainfall. Changes in the mean rainfall intensity for different frequencies of occurrence and storm durations for each site were also analyzed. Temperature has increased at all sites, and significantly at five out of the six sites. The mean annual rainfall has significantly changed between the two non-overlapping periods at the sites with the exception of Cairns (latitude – 16.87° south). The changes in rainfall intensity for longer durations (≥1 h) positively correlate with changes in the mean annual rainfall. There is evidence to suggest that the 6 min rainfall intensity would increase irrespective of the changes in the mean annual rainfall.