Detecting stock market regimes from option prices

Abstract

Equity market returns alternate between periods of calm and crises. Researchers commonly employ regime switching models to capture this behaviour. We show that forward-looking information extracted from option prices improves regime detection. In particular, horizon spreads in option-implied equity risk premia allow earlier detection of regime switches and improve prediction of the equity premium. This findings holds across recent disaster periods like the 2008/2009 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid pandemic outbreak, in both US and Emerging equity markets.