Design of Protected Area by Tracking and Excluding the Effects of Climate and Landscape Change: A Case Study Using Neurergus derjugini

Somaye Vaissi

doi:10.3390/su13105645

Abstract

This study aimed to use the applications of Ensemble Species Distribution Modelling (eSDM), Geographical Information Systems (GISs), and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for the design of a protected area (PA) for the critically endangered yellow-spotted mountain newt, Neurergus derjugini, by tracking and excluding the effects of climate and landscape changes in western Iran and northeastern Iraq. Potential recent and future distributions (2050 and 2070) were reconstructed by eSDM using eight algorithms with MRI-CGCM3 and CCSM4 models. The GIS-based MCDA siting procedure was followed inside habitats with high eSDM suitability by eliminating the main roads, cities, high village density, dams, poor vegetation, low stream density, agricultural lands and high ridge density. Then, within the remaining relevant areas, 10 polygons were created as “nominations” for PAs (NPAs). Finally, for 10 different NPAs, the suitability score was ranked based on ratings and weights (analytical hierarchy process) of the number of newt localities, NPA connectivity, NPA shape, NPA habitat suitability in 2070, NPA size, genetic diversity, village density and distance to nearest PAs, cities, and main roads. This research could serve as a modern realistic approach for environmental management to plan conservation areas using a cost-effective and affordable technique.

Highlights

Amphibians are valuable components of biodiversity that have declined significantly in many regions of the world [1,2,3]
Amphibians are often neglected for conservation efforts, and only ≤5% of 42% of threatened species are found in the protected areas (PAs hereafter) [12,13]
This study focused on the yellow-spotted mountain newt, Neurergus derjugini, using reports from 57 streams, springs, human-made pools, and irrigation channels located adjacent to first-order streams in the Zagros mountains in western Iran and northeastern Iraq [46,47,48,49,50,51,52,53,54,55,56]

Summary

Introduction

Amphibians are valuable components of biodiversity that have declined significantly in many regions of the world [1,2,3]. Extrinsic reasons that have contributed to these declines include several biotic and abiotic factors that act synergistically, such as habitat loss and fragmentation [4], chemical pollutions [5], UV radiation [6], alien species [7], direct exploitation [8], disease [9] and climate change [10]. For all of these reasons, the in situ conservation of viable populations in natural ecosystems is an essential strategy for managing and monitoring amphibian communities [11]. Landscape fragmentation reduces connectivity and genetic diversity among populations [36], which is followed by decreasing fitness and increased risk of local extinction [37]

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion