Abstract
Cultural tourism has gained much attention in the last decade and has promoted the preservation of a variety of tangible and intangible assets of culture. In order to accurately predict the cultural tourism passenger flow in the Yangtze River Delta and improve its economic benefits, this paper designs the prediction model of cultural tourism passenger flow in the Yangtze River Delta based on regression analysis. Taking the competitiveness of passenger flow as the core, this paper selects 28 indexes from four aspects of cultural tourism brand resources, cultural tourism support and protection, and urban tourism market income to build the evaluation index system of influencing factors of passenger flow. The principal component analysis method is used to simplify many related factors into a few uncorrelated factors to eliminate the multicollinearity caused by too many dependent variables; on this basis, the principal component regression model is constructed, and the determination coefficient is used to test the model fitting. Taking 15 cultural tourism cities in the Yangtze River Delta as the research object, the results show that the designed model has a good fitting degree, and the average error is only 0.41%, which can meet the needs of the prediction of cultural tourism passenger flow in the Yangtze River Delta. After the application of the prediction model, the foreign exchange earning amount of each cultural tourism city can be increased by more than 12%. The study has revealed good results.
Highlights
Jian XuErefore, the development of theory and practice shows that the competitiveness of urban cultural tourism passenger flow in the Yangtze River Delta can carry out more scientific index screening and system construction
Scientific Programming interaction, we can break the regional, spatial, and institutional barriers, create barrier-free tourism areas, and realize the all-round development of social economy
Tourist flow is an important indicator of the development level of tourism industry, an important part of tourism planning by national or regional tourism authorities, an effective guarantee to improve the quality of tourism products, and an important basis for the development of tourism resources and the construction of reception facilities such as hotels
Summary
Erefore, the development of theory and practice shows that the competitiveness of urban cultural tourism passenger flow in the Yangtze River Delta can carry out more scientific index screening and system construction. Based on the theory of cultural tourism passenger flow competitiveness in the Yangtze River Delta region, the following three principles are considered and followed in the design process of the specific factor index:. Based on the abovementioned competitiveness theory and index system design principles, this paper decomposes the evaluation objectives of cultural tourism passenger flow competitiveness in the Yangtze River Delta region into four subobjectives: cultural tourism brand resources, cultural performance and creativity, cultural tourism support and protection, and urban tourism market income.
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