Abstract
The provisions of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics are widely used in the design of transport facilities, the organization of construction and operation of roads. This is because traditional deterministic calculations often lead to errors or miscalculations due to the probabilistic nature of the geometric and strength characteristics of pavement layers, structures, building materials. The elastic moduli of the subgrade, the subbase, the base, and the pavement may deviate from the values taken in deterministic calculations by 10–20% upward or downward. In the production process, it is impossible to precisely maintain the thickness of the structural layer, which is reflected in the acceptance rules for finished layers (deviations from the design thickness of up to 10% are allowed). These deviations may constitute an unfavourable combination reducing the strength of the structure and reliability of the road as a whole.
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