Abstract
The belief-desire-intention (BDI) model has been widely used to construct reasoning systems for complex tasks in dynamic environments. We have designed a capabilities and abilities (CA)-BDI farmer decision-making model, which is an extension of the BDI architecture and includes internal representations for farmer household Capabilities and Abilities. This model is used to explore farmer learning mechanisms and to simulate the bounded rational decisions made by farmer households. Our case study focuses on the Gaoqu Commune of Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province, China, where scallion is one of the main cash crops. After comparing the differences between actual land-use changes from 2007 to 2009 and the simulation results, we analyze the validity of the model and discuss the potential and limitations of the farmer land-use decision-making model under three scenarios. Based on the design and implementation of the model, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) the CA-BDI framework is an appropriate model for exploring learning mechanisms and simulating bounded rational decisions; and (2) local governments should encourage scallion planting by assisting scallion farmer cooperatives and farmers to understand the market risk, standardize the rules of their cooperation, and supervise the contracts made between scallion cooperatives and farmers.
Highlights
Analyzing the interactions between environmental or agricultural policies and farmer behavior is generally considered crucial for the sustainability of agro-ecosystems (Evrendilek and Doygun 2000; Parker et al 2003; Fischbacher et al 2001; Rammel et al 2007)
Classification of farmer households Based on the cluster analysis of the interview data, the farmer households were classified and farmers were aggregated into groups based on age, education, average cropping area and crop planting profit
Studies that have considered the learning process when discussing human decision making may be divided into two types based on their expression of the learning process: random selection processes, which depend on the actions paying off (Sobel 2000; Satake et al 2007), and interaction processes, which occur between individuals and groups (Chen et al 2012b; Fleischman et al 2014; Chen et al 2015)
Summary
Analyzing the interactions between environmental or agricultural policies and farmer behavior is generally considered crucial for the sustainability of agro-ecosystems (Evrendilek and Doygun 2000; Parker et al 2003; Fischbacher et al 2001; Rammel et al 2007). A significant amount of recent research has focused on farmer land-use behavior and its impact on agricultural land-use change (Evrendilek and Doygun 2000; Brown et al 2013). The methods by which changes in agricultural policies affect farmer land-use behavior are not well understood (Thompson and Scoones 2009). Future research should focus on identifying the methods by which agricultural policies affect farmer land-use behavior and determine how changes in such behavior influence agricultural land-use changes (Manson 2001; Feola and Binder 2010). The core of the above question is to use an explicit and well-motivated behavioral theory to investigate agents’ behavior and its relationship with system dynamics (Parker et al 2003; Janssen and Ostrom 2006; Matthews and Selman 2006).
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