Deriving the predicted no effect concentrations of 35 pesticides by the QSAR-SSD method

Abstract

The widespread use of pesticides results in their frequent detection in water bodies and other environmental media. Pesticide residues may cause certain risks to the environment and human health, and reliable predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC) must be obtained when assessing environmental risks. Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) is an important method for the derivation of chemical PNECs. Construction of the SSD model requires sufficient toxicity data to various species including at least eight families in three phyla, suitable nonlinear fitting functions and assessment factors (AFs) with certain uncertainty. However, most chemicals could not collect sufficient species toxicity data, while some chemicals had sufficient species toxicity data but could not find suitable fitting functions, thus hindering the construction of effective SSD models. To this end, the established QSAR models were applied to predict toxicity of chemicals to specific species to fill in the toxicity data gaps required for SSD and selecting multiple nonlinear functions to optimize the SSD model. Combined with QSAR and SSD methods, a new method of PNEC derivation was developed and successfully applied to the derivation of PNEC for 35 pesticides. Three QSAR models were used to predict the toxicities of six pesticides with few toxicity data. Nine two-parameter nonlinear functions were used to fit the toxicity-cumulative probability data one by one to determine the optimal SSD models. The hazardous concentrations at the cumulative probability of 5% and 10%, i. e, HC5 and HC10, respectively, were calculated by the optimal SSD model. The assessment factor used to determine the PNEC of the chemical based on the HC10 was derived from the quantitative correlation between HC10 and HC5 of pesticides found in this study. When the toxicity data are insufficient, it may be more appropriate to calculate the PNECs of chemicals using HC10 than using HC5.