Abstract
Flood events are characterized by flood peaks and volumes that can be mutually constructed using a copula function. The Indus basin system of Pakistan is periodically threatened by floods during monsoon seasons and thus causes huge losses to infrastructure as well as the community and economy. The design flood hydrograph (DFH) of suitable magnitude and degree is imperative for sheltering dams against the flood risk. The hydrological pair of flood peak and volume is required to be defined using a multivariate analysis method. In this paper, the joint probability function of the hydrological pair is employed to derive the DFH in the Indus basin system of Pakistan. Firstly, we compared the fitting performance of different probability distributions (PDs) as a marginal distribution. Next, we compared the Archimedean family of copulas to construct the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume. Later, the equal frequency combination (EFC) method and most likely combination (MLC) method using “OR” joint return period (JRPor), was involved to derive the design flood quantiles. Finally, we derived the DFH using the two combination methods based on Gumbel–Hougaard copula for different return periods. We presented the combination methods for updating the shape of the DFH in Pakistan. Our study will contribute towards the improvement of design standards of dams and environmental recovery in Pakistan.
Highlights
Floods induce greater financial and human losses than all other natural disasters [1].Pakistan receives most of its fresh water from two major rivers, the Indus and Jhelum, which are the lifeblood to Pakistan’s thriving agriculture-based economy
These methods have been classified into four distinct classes by Yue et al (2002) [40], namely: (i) The tradition unit hydrograph (TUH) method, (ii) the synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH) method, (iii) the typical flood hydrograph (TFH) method, and (iv) the statistical method (SM)
We characterized the design flood hydrograph (DFH) generation by applying two bivariate quantile combination methods based on copula function
Summary
Floods induce greater financial and human losses than all other natural disasters [1].Pakistan receives most of its fresh water from two major rivers, the Indus and Jhelum, which are the lifeblood to Pakistan’s thriving agriculture-based economy. The rainy monsoon seasons often result in extreme floods in the river basins of the Indus and Jhelum, causing enormous infrastructural, economic and human losses in the country. In order to assess these impacts due to floods, hydrologic design of dams is performed by developing the design flood hydrograph (DFH) of suitable enormity and magnitude. For constructing DFH, the historical record of flood variables is evaluated by engineers prior to its application [2]. Multiple hydrological variables are required to be taken into account to construct DFH. The design of dams, culverts, and other critical hydraulic structures relies on design flood values [3]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
