Abstract
The Upper Vistula Basin is a flood-prone region in the summer season (May–October) due to intensive rainfall. From the point of view of water management, it is particularly important to assess the variability in this main factor of flood risk, as well as to establish the depth–duration–frequency (DDF) relationship for maximum precipitation, this having not yet been derived for the region. The analysis of a 68-year (1951–2018) data series of summer maximum precipitation collected by 11 meteorological stations showed the series’ stationarity, which supports the conclusion that there is no increase in the risk of rainfall floods due to the intensification of extreme precipitation. A new approach is proposed for the determination of the DDF relationship, where the best-fitted distribution for each station is selected from among the set of candidate distributions, instead of adopting one fixed distribution for all stations. This approach increases the accuracy of the DDF relationships for individual stations as compared to the commonly used approach. In particular, the traditionally used Gumbel distribution turns out to be not well fitted to the investigated data series, and the advantage of the recently popular GEV distribution is not significant.
Highlights
Establishing the depth–duration–frequency (DDF) relationship, or an equivalent intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationship for the maximum annual or seasonal rainfall is one of the basic tasks when it comes to water management
The obtained depth–duration– frequency (DDF) relation can serve as a factor of flood risk in the Upper Vistula Basin
It has been proven that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution fits only partially with the maximum daily rainfall in the Upper Vistula region, where the LN
Summary
Establishing the depth–duration–frequency (DDF) relationship, or an equivalent intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relationship for the maximum annual or seasonal rainfall is one of the basic tasks when it comes to water management. For almost a hundred years, the DDF (IDF) curves have been a useful tool for determining how the return levels of maximum rainfall depths (intensities) vary with duration over a range of return periods [1]. The assumption about stationary conditions during the DDF (IDF) derivation procedure has been considered [13,14,15]. This issue is investigated here in relation to the analyzed data, while the general discussion is beyond the scope of this article
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