Dependence of maize yield on hydrothermal factors in various agro-climatic zones of the Rostov region of Russia in the context of climate change.

Abstract

Trends in mean monthly temperature and precipitation during the growing season and their effects on the maize yield were analyzed at the Zimovnikovsky (Zim) and Rostov (Ros) state variety plots (SVPs), located in different agro-climatic zones of the Rostov region. For these two SVPs, in the period of 1975-2019, the Mann-Kendall test showed a statistically significant increase (p < 0.05) in mean temperature (0.70 and 0.52°C/decade) and a trend of decreased total precipitation (- 14.81 and - 10.40mm/decade) during the maize growing season. The dependence of the maize yield on hydrothermal factors was estimated for the period of 2011-2019 using the Pearson correlation coefficient (p < 0.05). The mean temperature in September at Zim negatively (r = - 0.78), and in June at Ros positively (r = 0.77) correlated with yield, which explained, according to the value of the coefficient of determination (R2), up to 60.7% and 58.7%, respectively, of the interannual variability of the maize yield. The precipitation in July at the Zim and Ros positively correlated (r = 0.75 and r = 0.71) with yield and explained up to 55.9% and 50.6%, respectively, of the interannual variability of the maize yield. The total amount of precipitation during the growing season at Zim was the dominant factor, explaining up to 75.7% of the interannual variability of maize yield. The continuation of the observed climatic trends during the growing season could lead in the next decade to both a decrease in the maize yield by an average of 0.25 t/ha at Zim and an increase in the maize yield by an average of 0.42 t/ha at Ros.