Abstract
The aim of this study was to investigate the possibility of using the dendrochronological method in drought prediction in eastern Bosnia. As an indicator of drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was used. In the wider area of Rogatica (eastern Bosnia), 11 core samples from trees were taken. The best connection between the width of tree rings and drought was shown by the sample of a 67-year-old European silver fir (Abies alba) from the mountain Boksanica. Removal of the biological trend (standardization) was performed by the autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) method. Calculations showed that precipitation, i.e. drought in the summer months, is crucial for radial increment of the sample. The obtained results of our research have been confirmed in examples in the region and further.
Highlights
Drought is a complex phenomenon that occurs due to prolonged lack of rainfall over an area
Unlike the concept of aridity, which indicates a permanent deficit in relation to the normal values of precipitation in a region, drought represents mainly a short-term lack of rainfall accompanied by high air temperatures
Drought means a deviation in the current relationship between precipitation and evapotranspiration from the normal value for a perennial period of observation
Summary
Drought is a complex phenomenon that occurs due to prolonged lack of rainfall over an area. It is caused by the disruption of normal circulation of the atmosphere. Unlike the concept of aridity, which indicates a permanent deficit in relation to the normal values of precipitation in a region, drought represents mainly a short-term lack of rainfall accompanied by high air temperatures. In terms of occurrence and intensity of drought, temporal variability and efficiency of rainfall have an important role. Other meteorological elements such as high temperatures, wind speed and low relative humidity are frequent companions of drought occurrence and, as such, can significantly aggravate its effects
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