Demographics and societal values as drivers of change in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River basin

Abstract

The footprint left by development in the Great Lakes–St. Lawrence River basin is fundamentally linked to the size, structure, and distribution of the human population across the region. Regional demographic conditions and trends over time provide insight into both why the basin looks as it does today and how it might change in the future. We present analyses of population size and distribution, age structure, immigration, and urban land use within the Great Lakes basin, and across six sub-basins, for the period 1960 to 2011. Since 1960, the population within the basin has increased (reaching 48.5 million people in 2011), become older (a result of both decreasing fertility and increasing life expectancy), and more diverse (as immigrants make up a higher share of the population). A booming population on the Canadian side stands in stark contrast to low growth or even population decline on the US side. Urban sprawl continues to outpace population growth in many areas, even for major US cities experiencing population decline. Looking toward the future, we present three scenarios of change for population, land use, and societal values in 2063 and highlight the role that societal values play in shaping the state of the basin. Ultimately, the state of the Great Lakes basin will be the outcome of many complex drivers of change, where demographics are only one entry-point to understanding potential future states.