Demographic effects of climate-induced disasters in South Korea: A spatiotemporal approach

Abstract

Climate-induced disasters threaten human society and local economies, resulting in substantial economic losses as well as the relocation of population and industries. In order to minimize the negative consequences and strengthen regional sustainability, it is important to estimate the population impact of Climate-induced disasters, as well as to understand the differing effects of those by type, for decision making processes in regional planning. The objective of our study is to examine the impacts of Climate-induced disasters - rainstorms, typhoons, snowstorms, and strong winds - on population growth at the municipal level in South Korea during the period 2006–2016. To better understand the effects of such events, we develop a spatial panel model that accounts for time and panel characteristics and the spatial spillover effects among local regions. Our findings suggested clear evidence that there was negative relationship between Climate-induced disasters and population growth. Specifically, the occurrence of sizable disasters, of which the total economic damage exceeding $1 million, was associated with a 1% point reduction in local population growth. In addition, the cumulative population decline in the neighboring regions amounted to 2.84% point, revealing substantial spillover effects. Such impacts varied by the types of disasters; only typhoons had a significantly negative effect on population growth. Our results suggest that planning strategies to minimize the impacts of climate-related disasters should be differentiated by different types of natural hazards.