Abstract
Ship exhaust emission is the main cause of coastal air pollution, leading to premature death from cardiovascular cancer and lung cancer. In light of public health and climate change concerns, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and several governments are reinforcing policies to use clean ship fuels. In January 2020, the IMO reduced the acceptable sulfur content in ship fuel to 0.5% m/m (mass/mass) for sustainability. The use of liquified natural gas (LNG) as a ship fuel is currently the most likely measure to meet this regulation, and LNG bunkering infrastructure investment and network planning are underway worldwide. Therefore, the aim of this study is to predict the LNG bunkering demand for investment and planning. So far, however, there has been little quantitative analysis of LNG bunkering demand prediction. In this study, first, the global LNG bunkering demand was predicted using meta-regression analysis. Global demand for LNG bunkering is forecast to increase from 16.6 million tons in 2025 to 53.2 million tons in 2040. Second, LNG bunkering prediction by country and region was performed through analogy and artificial intelligence methods. The information and insights gained from this study may facilitate policy implementation and investments.
Highlights
Published: 13 August 2021Ship exhaust emission is at the root of coastal air pollution [1]
In 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) strengthened regulations pertaining to ship emissions to protect public health and the environment
Governments are strengthening their policies to cope with climate change
Summary
Ship exhaust emission is at the root of coastal air pollution [1]. Particulate matter 2.5 emissions from ships, which cause cardiovascular cancer and lung cancer, have resulted in as many as 64,000 annual deaths [3]. In this context, keeping in mind public health and environmental protection concerns, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has strengthened ship exhaust gas regulations [4]. The issue of air pollution by ships was first discussed in 1973, when the International. Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL 73/78) was adopted [5].
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