Delphi method for evaluating scientific research proposals in a neutrosophic environment

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This research had the purpose of analyzing and evaluating the strategic indicators, proposed in 2018 on the strategic map of that institution. In order to verify whether these indicators meet the institution's objectives, the research question arises: Are the proposed indicators valid? Are they designed to really measure the desired impacts? In addition to being important for management purposes, in verifying the achievement of the institution's objectives, the preparation of these indicators is the first step towards the implementation of risk management, which will be carried out by the institution, in compliance with legal standards. The results that the institution wishes to measure derive from the indicators. If the indicators are not correct, the results measured by them will also not be, and thus the organization cannot correct its flaws, making it difficult to achieve its strategic objectives, or even find its most critical problems and mitigate future risks in its operations. This research deals with a single case study, as it aims at an in-depth study of an object in order to obtain detailed knowledge on the subject. As for nature, it is classified as applied, as it aims to generate knowledge for practical application in the solution of existing problems. Its design is considered documental and bibliographic. Being structured in the following way: 1) Diagnosis of the research problem through the survey of indicators, the process of its elaboration, using in-depth interviews, spreadsheets and other documents, through bibliographic research, research and documentary and content analysis; 2) Validation of indicators using bibliographic, documentary, Delphi technique and expert opinion; 3) Proposal for a solution with the elaboration of the technological artifact, containing the indicators validated by the research and suggestion of creating complementary indicators for the institution. Through this research, the institution's performance indicators were analyzed. Several systems of indicators were studied in the literature and, together with the experts' opinion, the validation of each of the existing indicators in the institution was carried out. Afterwards, the technological artifact was built with the validated indicators and suggestions of indicators from the contributions of the studied systems so that the institution's set of indicators is completer and more effective. With the result of this research, the validated indicators will be recognized and confirmed as being effectively necessary to measure the results of the institution. In addition to the suggestions for later inclusion of indicators, which contribute to the expansion of the information generated for the management of the institution. With the results being measured based on correct indicators, they will be used by management in strategic actions at the institution, as well as proceeding with the implementation of risk management actions in the processes, which is a normative requirement of IN 01/2016 / MPOG / CGU and you will be able to see in your results, which points need more attention so that you can meet your goals and achieve your goals. The impact area of this research is the federal public administration. The study developed is unique, as it is a case study of the Federal Institute of Mato Grosso - Campus Varzea Grande. However, based on the results of the research, it can be used in other similar institutions, contributing to the beginning of the process of developing performance indicators or improving them, improving the institution's planning and strategic control actions. The result of the research is the main technical / technological product derived from the study. The result of this research offers the validation of the strategic indicators of the researched institution, a list of indicators that correspond to its needs, and that will support the implementation of risk management and strategic planning actions. The research result is applicable because it can be used immediately as an improvement tool by the institution's management. It has innovation requirements, since a study that provided these results has not been previously carried out. Its result is easy to understand and apply by any institution. This research is part of Axis 1, product 16. Management processes, according to Qualis criteria.

Objective To construct a scientific and objective assessment to value nurse's ability of scientific research in order to provide an objective unified standard and operable method to value nurse's ability of scientific research and provide a standard for medical institutions to select nurses of scientific research. Methods After searching literatures and interviewing 7 experts, Delphi method was used to construct primary variables of nurse's ability of scientific research. Then a second interview was given to each of 18 experts. The variables were weighted using analytic hierarchy process. Results Variables to assess nurse's ability of scientific research included 2 first grade indices, 9 second grade indices and 35 third grade indices. Questionnaire return rates for two rounds of interviews were 84.00% (21/25) and 85.71% (18/21), respectively. Degree of authority Cr was 0.938. Scores of variables' importance ranged at 4.06-4.96. Ratios of full scores ranged at 33.33%-94.44%. Variable coefficients ranged at 0.05-0.25. The weight coefficients of 3 first grade indices (scientific research accumulation, explicit ability of scientific research, and intrinsic ability of scientific research) were 0.475 and 0.525, respectively. Conclusions The nurse's ability of scientific research assessment system based on Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process is scientific and objective. This system combines quantitative and qualitative variables. It thus can calculate the ability of nurse's scientific research according to the three grade indices. It is operable to be used to assess the ability of nurse's scientific research. Key words: Nurses; Research ability; Aassessment system; Delphi method; Analytic hierarchy process

Looking ahead is a deeply rooted motivation and even basic human has been faced with this problem, then it cannot be said that noticing future is a feature of modern humans. Merely in the contemporary era due to rise of awareness of human knowledge on one hand and escalating worries about the acceleration of unknown events on the other hand the thought of thinking of future of societies became popular in a more severe frame. The future is something that humans can design with their purposeful measures and then shape it. Increased complexity and precariousness in the few decades has led planners and policy-makers turn to scenario planning making in such circumstances. Adaptability of future methods in urban and regional planning, provides a meticulous approach for regional planning which is mostly based on the interpolation, compatibility and participation. This research was conducted with the goal of regional development and the feasibility of the program in Shemiranat County and through scenario planning in regional planning. Information needed for this research was compiled using an open and structured questionnaire through Delphi method and comments of experts and data from MICMAC in three cycles and then using interactive analysis techniques, they were analyzed in the software. Finally, according to Schwartz scenario writing was conducted. The results show that Shemiranat will face four main scenarios. The four scenarios will be described

Modelling life trajectories and mode choice using Bayesian belief networks

Summary
\nTransparent and standardized reporting in clinical research is a prerequisite for optimal healthcare decision-making. This applies to any clinical discipline, but may be specifically challenging, when complex surgical interventions are involved. There, the impact of surgeons’ experience on the size of treatment effects, standardization of interventions and of outcome assessment need to be specifically addressed.
\nIn a previous investigation on selective outcome reporting in surgical trials (Rosenthal and Dwan 2013), we found a remarkably high percentage of unexplained discrepancies between registry entries and final reports of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that were published in high-impact surgical journals. In order to address problems of reporting in surgical research more in depth, I decided to dedicate my PhD to this topic. Thus, the overall aim of my PhD research is to investigate and promote transparent and standardized reporting in surgical research. As follows, I outline the different aspects I specifically addressed.
\nProject 1: How to write a surgical clinical research protocol: literature review and practical guide
\nAny clinical research starts with asking a research question. The question shall be embedded in the existing body of evidence. If the study question and hypothesis is not precise and the study is not designed in a sound manner, this will impact on reporting and overall study conclusions. The core document of the design phase is the study protocol. Our first project was thus to develop a straightforward 10-step practice guideline on how to develop a surgical clinical trial protocol with a focus on methodological aspects. Our project and initiative was highly welcomed by the journal reviewer of the American Journal of Surgery, where the study was published (Rosenthal et al. 2014) and is reflected in his reviewer comment “This is a valuable report that describes the steps necessary to optimize the design of clinical research studies. This information is important and the article should be required reading for all surgeons who are embarking on a research career.”
\nProject 2: The use of systematic reviews when designing and reporting surgical trials 
\nA systematic review (SR) on the existing literature should be part of any clinical research project to justify the planned research from a scientific, ethical and economic point of view as well as to inform the trial design and, finally to sum up the results within the existing body of evidence. In a meta-epidemiological research project we investigated to what extend investigators systematically searched the literature in the context of their project and whether this information was provided in the final publication (Rosenthal et al. 2015a). Of 596 studies, 51 RCTs published in 3 high-impact general surgical journals were identified. SRs were referenced in 65%, either to summarize evidence concerning a related topic (43%) or the study topic (excluding first-in-area RCTs: introduction 24%, discussion 26%). No SRs were used to inform trial design and no trial updated a SR for the integration of the new results. In conclusion, in the surgical literature SR are rarely used to inform trial design, justify the research and synthesize knowledge for informed decision making. 
\nProject 3: Completion and publication rates of surgical randomized controlled trials – an empirical study
\nIn a next step, we addressed important issues when conducting and reporting results of clinical trials in surgery. We investigated to what extent surgical trials were discontinued early and/or not published. For this purpose, all RCT protocols approved from 2000 to 2003 by six ethics committees in Canada, Germany and Switzerland were screened. We explored risk factors for early trial discontinuation due to slow recruitment and compared surgical to medical trials. Early trial discontinuation due to slow recruitment has an impact on reporting: first, overall trial conclusions due to limited power may be biased if the targeted sample size has not been reached and second early discontinuation may increase the risk of publication bias if results typically derived from underpowered studies are not published. 
\nIn total, 863 RCT protocols involving adult patients were identified; 127 in surgery (15%) and 736 in medicine (85%). Surgical trials were discontinued for any reason more often than medical trials (43% versus 27%, risk difference 16% (95% confidence interval [CI] 5%, 26%); p=0.001) and were also more often discontinued for slow recruitment (18% versus 11%, risk difference 8% (95% CI 0.1%, 16%); p=0.020). The percentage of trials not published as full journal article was similar in surgical and medical trials (44% versus 40%, risk difference 4% (95% CI -5%, 14%); p=0.373). Discontinuation of surgical trials was a strong risk factor for non-publication (odds ratio 4.18, 95% CI 1.45, 12.06; p=0.008) (Rosenthal et al. 2015b).
\nProject 4: Reporting of adverse events in surgical trials: critical appraisal of current practice 
\nReporting of surgical outcomes should include detailed reporting of harm. The information needs to be generated according to uniform and reproducible standards that allow for the comparison of results, techniques, centres or surgeons. For postoperative complications, several classifications have been proposed and validated; however, there exists no recognised classification system for intraoperative complications. Therefore, we aimed at assessing the current practice of reporting intra- and postoperative complications in surgical trials that were published in 2010 in three major surgical journals (Rosenthal et al. 2015c). We identified 46 trials that reported intra- and postoperative complications. These complications were reported separately in 42% and pooled in 15%. In 37% intraoperative, in 2% postoperative, and in 4% both intra- and postoperative complications were not reported at all. Exact definitions were provided in 13% for intraoperative and in 50% for postoperative complications. A classification was used in 9% for intra- and in 54% for postoperative complications, most frequently according to severity. As further research, we thus plan to develop and validate a classification of intraoperative complications in order to facilitate the evaluation of safety and the continuous quality control of surgical interventions with the ultimate goal to contribute to patient safety. 
\nProject 5: Definition and Classification of Intraoperative Complications (CLASSIC): Delphi Study and pilot evaluation 
\nOur abovementioned investigation (Project 4) of reporting of harm clearly showed the urgent need for a classification of intraoperative complications. We therefore conducted a two-stage Delphi study among experts in surgical practice and trial methodology to develop a definition and classification of intraoperative complications (Rosenthal et al. 2015d).
\nIn the Delphi study, a total of 40 out of 52 experts (77% return rate) from 14 countries took part in both rounds. It resulted in a comprehensive definition of intraoperative complications and a straightforward classification. We then conducted a pilot study reviewing 60 records involving surgical interventions of variable complexity by two independent reviewers. It showed good practicability (6 on a 7-point scale) and an 87% agreement with a weighted kappa of 0.83 (95% CI 0.73, 0.94) and an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.83 (95% CI 0.73, 0.90). 
\nProject 6: How to report multiple outcome metrics in virtual reality simulation
\nVirtual reality (VR) simulation is increasingly being used for assessment and training purposes in various surgical disciplines. However, there is no consensus on how to report outcomes derived from simulators. VR simulators objectively measure multiple outcomes, which is frequently handled by selective reporting or multiple testing. This compromises comparison between different VR studies and introduces a risk of bias. Thus, suitable methods are needed to either address multiplicity issues or combine evidence from multiple possibly related outcomes into a lower dimensional outcome. We developed an algorithm for summarizing multiple VR outcome metrics into a total score and illustrate the approach with two real data examples (Rosenthal et al. 2015e). Given the increasing number of articles in the field, a standardized and transparent approach for analyzing and reporting VR outcome data is of utmost importance to enhance the validity of VR derived surgical reports.
\nProject 7 (ongoing): Disregarding paired data in surgical research – evaluation of current practice and estimation of implications on study results
\nIn surgical practice and research, patients may be affected by a pathology and treated on both sides of their body, e.g. in extremity surgery. As a consequence, paired data are generated. In the context of our consultancy service for surgeons we were faced with studies that did not account for the paired design in the statistical analysis. We therefore decided to carry out a systematic literature review based on the example of inguinal hernia repair, one of the most frequently conducted surgical interventions (ongoing). The aim of this project is to first evaluate to what extent paired data are accounted for in the statistical analysis and second to estimate the impact on overall study conclusions if this specific design issue is not correctly considered in the statistical analysis. 
\nConclusion
\nIn conclusion, with the present work the reporting of surgical trials is addressed from two points of view: i) evaluation of current practice and ii) proposal for procedures to address identified challenges in reporting. Since any study report depends on the study conception and conduct, these two phases are included in the evaluation.

Abstract. Thoroughly prepared historical map data can facilitate research in a wide range of domains, including ecology and hydrology (e.g., for preservation and renaturation), urban planning and architecture (e.g., to analyse the settlement development), geology and insurance (e.g., to derive indicators of past natural hazards to estimate future events), and even linguistics (e.g., to explore the evolution of toponyms). Research groups in Switzerland have invested large amounts of time and money to manually derive features (e.g., pixel-based segmentations, vectorizations) from historical maps such as the Dufour Map Series (1845–1865) or the Siegfried Map Series (1872–1949). The results of these efforts typically cover limited areas of the respective map series and are tailored to specific research questions. Recent research in automated data extraction from historical maps shows that Deep Learning (DL) methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) might significantly reduce this manual workload (Uhl et al. (2017), Heitzler et al. (2018)). Yet, efficiently exploiting DL methods to provide high-quality features requires detailed knowledge of the underlying mathematical concepts and software libraries, high-performance hardware to train models in a timely manner, and sufficient amounts of data. Hence, a new initiative at the Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation (IKG) at ETH Zurich aims to establish a hub to systematically bundle the efforts of the many Swiss institutes working with historical map data and to provide the computational capabilities to efficiently extract the desired features from the vast collection of Swiss historical maps. This is primarily achieved by providing a spatial data infrastructure (SDI), which integrates a geoportal with a DL environment (see Figure 1). The SDI builds on top of the geoportal geodata4edu.ch (G4E), which was established to facilitate the access of federal and cantonal geodata to Swiss academic institutions. G4E inherently supports the integration and exploration of spatio-temporal data via an easy-to-use web interface and common web services and hence is an ideal choice to share historical map data. Making historical map data accessible in G4E is realized using state-of-the-art software libraries (e.g., Tensorflow, Keras), and suitable hardware (e.g., NVIDIA GPUs). Existing project data generated by the Swiss scientific community serve as the initial set to train a DL model for a specific thematic layer. If such data does not exist it is generated manually. Combining these data with georeferenced sheets of the corresponding map series allows the DL system to learn a way of obtaining the expected results based on the input map sheet. In the common case where an actual vectorization of a thematic layer is required, two steps are taken. First, the underlying ANN architecture yields a segmentation of the map sheet to determine which pixel is part of the feature type of interest (e.g., by using a fully convolutional architecture such as U-Net (Ronneberger et al. (2015)) and, second, the resulting segmentations will be vectorized using GIS algorithms (e.g., using methods as described in Hori & Okazaki (1992)). These vectorizations undergo a quality check and might be directly published in G4E if the quality is considered high enough. In addition, the results may be manually corrected. A corrected dataset may have a greater value for the scientific community but might be time consuming to create. However, it has also the advantage to serve as additional training data for the DL system. This may lead to a positive feedback loop, which allows the ANN to gradually improve its predictions, which in turn improves the vectorization results and hence reduces the correction workload. Figure 2 shows automatically generated vectorizations of building footprints after two such iterations. Special emphasis was put on enforcing perpendicularity without requiring human intervention. At the time of writing, such building polygons have been generated for all Siegfried map sheets. It is worth emphasizing that showing the ability of generating high-quality features of single thematic layers at a large scale and making them easily available to the scientific community is a key aspect when establishing a hub for sharing historical map data. Research groups are more willing to share their data if they see that the coverage of the data they produce might get multiplied and if they realize that other groups are providing their data as well. Apart from the benefits for research groups using such data, such an environment also allows to facilitate the development of new methods to derive features from historical maps (e.g., for extraction, generalization). The current focus lies on the systematic preparation of all thematic layers of the main Swiss map series. Afterwards it is aimed to place higher emphasis on the fusion of the extracted layers. In the long-term, these efforts will lead to a comprehensive spatio-temporal database of high scientific value for the Swiss scientific community.

. This study aimed to determine the motivation of the Toraja people cut buffalo on custom events Rambu Solo’ and Rambu Tuka’. The study was conducted in May 2012 until June 2012 in the districts Makale, Tana Toraja Regency. Populasi was all the people who have done cutting buffalo while the sample of 20 people with using the Delphi method. Data analysis was a descriptive statistical frequency distribution. The results showed people's motivation to cut Toraja buffalo on custom events Rambu Solo 'and Rambu Tuka' consists of extrinsic motives, namely: 1. Driven feeling indebted for families who have a party had first brought and cut the buffalo on the traditional parties that have been held (pay down debt), 2. to preserve the culture and increase revenue (the original income) Tana Toraja, 3.Habits / Rituals and intrinsic motives, namely: 1. Deepen Relationships and 2. Adjusted Economic Capabilities. Keywords :Motivation, Cut, Buffalo, Rambu Solo’, Rambu Tuka’.

In 2010, the US Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) announced a 4-year forecasting “tournament”. Five collaborative research teams are attempting to outperform a baseline opinion pool in predicting hundreds of geopolitical, economic and military events. We are contributing to one of these teams by eliciting forecasts from Delphi-style groups in the US and Australia. We elicit probabilities of outcomes for 3-5 monthly questions, such as: Will Australia formally transfer uranium to India by 1 June 2012? Participants submit probabilities in a 3-step interval format, view those of others in their group, share, rate and discuss information, and then make a second private judgement. Performance is assessed using Brier scores. After Year 1, we ranked second of five teams in the competition. The Brier scores from the US Delphi groups improved on the baseline scores by 10%, the prediction market operated by our team in the US beat the baseline by 47%, and the Australian Delphi groups outperformed the baseline by 51% (answering different, matched questions to the US groups). The Australian groups were more socially and demographically diverse than the US groups. Group diversity may be an important factor determining the forecasting performance of the aggregated predictions.

Two major fragmentation events in GEO and HEO were observed in 2018. Based on measurements of the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON) and the Roscosmos Automated Warning System on Hazardous Situations in Outer Space (ASPOS OKP) a fragmentation of the Titan 3C Transtage 1969-013B, SSN #3692 on February 28, 2018 was identified. More than 100 objects detected by optical instruments operated by ASPOS OKP, the Astronomical Scientific Center, ISON, ISTP RAS and other Russian scientific and re search organizations could be clearly identified as fragmentation debris related to this event. Another massive fragmentation event in HEO related to the Atlas Centaur upper stage 2014-055B, SSN #40209, which occurred on August 30, was identified based on the same data sources. Many of the fragment of this event are crossing the operational GEO region. In March and April 2019 two additional breakup events of Atlas Centaur upper stages took place. Since October 2018 ESA is performing a coordinated survey campaign using its 1-m telescope at the OGS, Tenerife, complemented by sensors of the Swiss Optical Ground Station and Geodynamics Observatory Zimmerwald, Switzerland. The paper will describe the development of the survey strategy to search for additional fragments of the two mentioned events, the execution of the actual observation campaign including the handover of newly discovered objects to other sensors and the subsequent follow-up observations, and the main results of and lessons learned from this campaign.

Dini gruplar, ortak inanç esasları etrafında toplanan bireylerin meydana getirdiği sosyal yapılardır. Bu yapılar kendi iç aktivitelerini yerine getirirken toplumsal bir dünyada yaşamanın gereği olarak diğer kurumlarla da etkileşim içerisinde olagelmişlerdir. Özellikle siyaset kurumuyla olan ilişkileri ve bu ilişkilerin sonuçları günümüzde kamuoyu tarafından yoğun olarak tartışılmaktadır. Son dönemlerde yaşadığımız olayların toplumu getirdiği nokta problemin ne kadar önemli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bugün yaşanan olaylar tarihten kopuk sosyal hadiseler olmayıp her bir olayın tarihsel geçmişi ve arka planı vardır. Bu nedenle bugün gözlemlenen dini gruplar siyaset ilişkisi yüzlerce yılda meydana gelen birikim ve tecrübelerin günümüze yansımasıdır.Geçmiş anlaşılmadan bugün yorumlanamaz ilkesinden hareketle tarihimizdeki önemli dini gruplardan olan tarikatların siyasal yapı ile olan ilişkilerini ele alıp incelemek günümüzde meydana gelen olayları çözümlemeye ve anlamaya yardım edecektir. Bu amaçla Osmanlı toplum yapısı içinde önemli bir dini grup olan Halvetî Tarikatı’nın siyasi yapılarla olan ilişkilerini ve oynadığı siyasal rolü bu makalede ele alıp inceleyeceğiz. Bu yapı üzerinden geçmişten günümüze bir projeksiyon tutarak siyasi yapıların dini gruplardan beklentisini, dini grupların da siyasal yapıyla olan ilişkilerini ortaya koyacağız.

This paper repeats results of the research of Delphi method organized by Jonathan Tourtelot at the end of the year 2006. Delphi method is one of the best scientific method for measuring of unmeasurable phenomena. The topic of the research was estimation of general conditions for tourism every places of UNESCO World Heritage List. This evaluation required weighing such subtle issues as aesthetics and cultural integrity as well as balancing good points against bad ones

Objective Taking into account of the actual scientific research conducted at medical universities in Yunnan Province, Southwest China, to develop an appropriate evaluation index system of scientific research performance. Methods main methodologies and procedures adopted to develop the evaluation index system include literature analysis, Delphi method, Group Analytic Hierarchy Process and Expert authority calculation. Results The evaluation index system of scientific research performance consists of scientific research input index system and output index system. The scientific research input index system includes financial input and human resources input as two primary indicators.While the scientific research output index system is made up of two primary indicators, named quantitative output and qualitative output. There are another six second-level indicators, six third-level indicators and 37 fourth-level indicators to make up of the quantitative output index system. Calculation of the indicator weight will consider the natures of different units or departments, the mixed analysis of quantitative and qualitative methods, as well as one-vote veto decision were adopted to make sure classified assessment were actually implemented during the evaluation process. Conclusions The index system is suggested to be used for evaluating scientific research performance in different colleges or departments. Adopting such system can help the management of scientific research performances at both micro-and meso-levels.It may also inspire more researchers and research management personnel in a broader sense. Key words: Scientific research performance; Evaluation index system; Delphi; Multi-AHP

In October 2014, the first ”Joint DLR & TU Delft Aviation Noise Workshop” was organized. This publication is the executive summary of this event. Overall, 38 invited participants from industry, academia, and research institutions have discussed the specific topic of this first 3 day workshop, i.e ”Aircraft Noise Reduction at the Source”. Four specific tasks were formulated in order to address the problem, i.e. (1) identification of main aircraft noise sources on-board of a given reference vehicle, (2) assessment of simulation capabilities for noise prediction, (3) identification and assessment of promising noise reduction concepts for the reference vehicle, and (4) integration of these measures on-board of the reference vehicle. The major noise sources on-board of the reference vehicle as identified by the participants could have been reduced significantly if selected measures are installed on-board. These proposed measures promise to reduce the system noise by 8 dB along a take-off and by 10 dB along an approach flight. Yet, the almost 65% reduction in perceived noise as specified by ACARE’s Flight Path 2050 could not be achieved. The most effective measure has been identified as structural shielding of engine noise emission.

In order to survive in the modern world, organizations must be equipped with the mechanisms that not only maintain their competitive advantage, but also result in their progress and improvement. Prediction of banks’ performances is an important issue, and a poor performance in banks may primarily lead to their bankruptcy, thereby affecting national economics. The bank performance prediction model uses scientific and systematic approaches to diagnose the financial operations of institutes. According to a precise and strict evaluation, the model can detect the weakness of institutions in advance and provide early warning signals to related financial governments. In the present study, we have used three data mining models to predict the future performance of the banks accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and Iran Fara Bourse. Initially, 53 financial ratios were selected and, consequently, reduced to 28 using the fuzzy Delphi technique. The statistical population included 18 banks listed on TSE and Iran Fara Bourse, which provided their financial statements during the period of 2011 to 2017. Data were collected from the Codal site based on 28 financial ratios using C4.5 decision tree, AdaBoost, and Naive Bayes algorithm. According to the findings, the Naive Bayes algorithm was the optimal predictive model with the accuracy of 88.89%.