Degradation modelling and lifetime assessment for boiler waterwall with incomplete inspection data

Abstract

Thermal fatigue cracking is a common problem for boiler waterwall tubes in power plants, resulting the risk of unscheduled plant shutdown. Developing an effective degradation model to predict the future condition of waterwall tubes is vital to assess boiler remaining life. Even though many numerical studies are available in the literature for understanding the physical mechanism (thermal fatigue cracking), the development of predictive models for future risks that can inform decision making are limited. One of the key impediments for developing predictive models is the lack of data. In the case of boiler critical subsystems, very few failures (if any) are recorded in its history. In addition, the number of inspections is limited due to access difficulties. Thus, in many practical cases, the condition data available for degradation modelling is sparse with both infrequent and (spatially) incomplete inspections. This paper presents the development of a stochastic degradation model prediction of thermal fatigue cracking severity in a boiler waterwall when the data is limited. The time evolution of the condition indicator for each waterwall tube is modelled using Markov Models and Bayesian identification algorithms are used to tractably address the large amount of missing data. The methodology presented in this paper employs a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to account for the parameter uncertainty in the presence of missing data. Moreover, this paper also incorporates a novel grouping strategy in which the neighbouring components are grouped to tackle the problem of (spatial) data sparsity. The degradation modelling and prediction tools developed in this paper will support renewal decision making by using available onsite asset data and knowledge. A real-world case study of a boiler waterwall operating in an Australian power industry is also presented. It is found that the waterwall degradation appears to be slowing, but an additional inspection is recommended to confirm the trend.