Abstract
Because of the outstanding issue of high slope stability in hydropower project, the statistical slope stability analysis is studied by applying deformation monitoring data based on the probability and catastrophe theory. According to the analysis of geological conditions and measured information of high slope, the mechanical slope stability analysis is established. The EMD (empirical mode decomposition) method is introduced, which is used to fitting parameters and solving the aging component of slope deformation by breaking through the traditional regression model, and a method to abstract stationary and nonlinear aging component is proposed eventually. Combining with the theory of catastrophe, a cusp catastrophe model of slope stability is established. The early warning indexes of slope stability are put forward in terms of the deformation acceleration. Applying these above methods, the stability of the spillway high slope of a certain concrete face rockfill dam during operation period is analyzed and evaluated.
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