Dynamic reliability and seismic fragility analysis for high concrete-faced rockfill dam slopes subjected to stochastic earthquake and parameter excitation via PDEM

Abstract

The randomness of material parameters and earthquake excitation greatly impacts the seismic stability of high concrete-faced rockfill dam (CFRD) slopes. However, no research has comprehensively analyzed the impacts of stochastic earthquake excitations, random parameters and their coupled effects on seismic stability of CFRD slopes and selected a multi-indicator evaluation criterion to carry out performance-based safety assessment. This paper develops a novel and comprehensive framework for evaluating the seismic stability of CFRD slopes based on the generalized probability density evolution method (GPDEM) with high efficiency and accuracy. The effects of three kinds of randomness on seismic stability of CFRD slopes were comprehensively compared and analyzed on the basis of multi-indices (safety factor (FS), cumulative slip displacement and cumulative time with FS < 1.0). Firstly, the nonlinear shear strength parameters of 40 high CFRDs were statistically collected to obtain the statistical characteristics of rockfill material strength parameters of actual CFRD projects. Secondly, three kinds of random samples were generated using generalized F-discrepancy (GF-discrepancy) method and Spectral expression-Random function (SERF) method. Then, the GPDEM was introduced to combine with three indices to perform the stochastic analysis and reliability evaluation. Finally, the fragility analysis of the CFRD slope was conducted. The results reveal that FS is more sensitive to the ground motions randomness, while cumulative slip displacement and cumulative time with FS < 1.0 are more sensitive to the material parameters randomness. The seismic safety evaluation of CFRD slopes based on multiple indices with full consideration of coupled randomness effects is necessary.