Deflating China's nominal GDP: 2004–2018

Abstract

This paper is a preliminary attempt to use both the value added approach with double deflation and the expenditure approach to deflate China's nominal GDP over 15 years (2004–2018). The results show that China's real GDP growth during the period has significantly more fluctuations than the official statistics indicate. Additionally, inflation, as measured by the official implicit GDP deflator, is generally overestimated during boom years but underestimated during downturn years. In particular, it is shown that China's growth slowdown in recent years before the COVID-19 pandemic may have been more severe than official figures suggest.