DeepOP: A Hybrid Framework for MITRE ATT&CK Sequence Prediction via Deep Learning and Ontology

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As the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) increasingly integrates with traditional networks, advanced persistent threats (APTs) pose significant risks to critical infrastructure. Traditional Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) and Anomaly Detection Systems (ADSs) are often inadequate in countering sophisticated multi-step APT attacks. This highlights the necessity of studying attacker strategies and developing predictive models to mitigate potential threats. To address these challenges, we propose DeepOP, a hybrid framework for attack sequence prediction that combines deep learning and ontological reasoning. DeepOP leverages the MITRE ATT&CK framework to standardize attacker behavior and predict future attacks with fine-grained precision. Our framework’s core is a novel causal window self-attention mechanism embedded within a transformer-based architecture. This mechanism effectively captures local causal relationships and global dependencies within attack sequences, enabling accurate multi-step attack predictions. In addition, we construct a comprehensive dataset by extracting causally connected attack events from cyber threat intelligence (CTI) reports using ontological reasoning, mapping them to the ATT&CK framework. This approach addresses the challenge of insufficient data for fine-grained attack prediction and enhances the model’s ability to generalize across diverse scenarios. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively predicts attacker behavior, achieving competitive performance in multi-step attack prediction tasks. Furthermore, DeepOP bridges the gap between theoretical modeling and practical security applications, providing a robust solution for countering complex APT threats.