Deep learning-based dynamic forecasting method and application for ultra-deep fractured reservoir production

Abstract

Addressing the complex challenges in dynamic production forecasting for the deep-ultra-deep fractured carbonate reservoirs in the Tarim Basin’s Tahe Oilfield, characterized by numerous influencing factors, strong temporal variations, high non-linearity, and prediction difficulties, We proposes a prediction method based on Gated Recurrent Unit networks (GRU). Initially, the production data and influencing factors are subjected to dimensionality reduction using Pearson correlation coefficient and principal component analysis methods to obtain multi-attribute time series data. Subsequently, deep learning modeling of time series data is conducted using Gated Recurrent Unit networks. The model is then optimized using the Optuna algorithm and applied to the dynamic production forecasting of the deep-ultra-deep fractured carbonate reservoirs in the Tahe Oilfield. The results demonstrate that the Gated Recurrent Unit network model optimized by Optuna excels in the dynamic production forecasting of the Tahe fractured carbonate reservoirs. Compared with the traditional method, the mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are reduced by 0.04, 0.1 and 1.1, respectively. This method proves to be more adaptable to the production forecasting challenges of deep fractured reservoirs, providing an effective means to enhance model performance. It holds significant practical value and importance in guiding the development of fractured reservoirs.