Deep-Learning Framework for Terminal Airspace Trajectory Prediction and In-Time Prognostics

Abstract

Terminal airspace around an airport is the biggest bottleneck for commercial operations in the National Airspace System. To prognosticate the safety status of the terminal airspace, effective prediction of the airspace evolution is necessary. While there are fixed procedural structures for managing operations at an airport, the confluence of a large number of aircraft and the complex interactions between the pilots and air traffic controllers make it challenging to predict its evolution. Modeling the high-dimensional spatiotemporal interactions in the airspace given different environmental and infrastructural constraints is necessary for effective predictions of future aircraft trajectories that characterize the airspace state at any given moment. A novel deep-learning architecture using Graph Neural Networks is proposed to predict trajectories of aircraft 10 min into the future and estimate prognostic metrics for the airspace. The uncertainty in the future is quantified by predicting distributions of future trajectories instead of point estimates. The framework’s viability for trajectory prediction and prognosis is demonstrated with terminal airspace data from Dallas Fort Worth International Airport.