Decoupling analysis of carbon emission from construction land in Shanghai

Abstract

China produced the largest volume of carbon emission in the world over the last few years. The annual carbon emissions from the construction land (CECL) of Shanghai soared by 15.40 million tons at a growth rate of 3.70% from 1999 to 2015, whereas the area of construction land expanded by 1120.57 km2, increasing by 2.71% annually. Using Kaya identity and the logarithmic mean divisia index method (LMDI), we calculate the contributions of energy structure, energy intensity, industrial structure, land economic output, population density, and area of construction land area to CECL in Shanghai, and confirmed land economic output as the main driving factor of CECL increase. Then, we examined the decoupling degree of CECL from economic growth driven by the six factors using Tapio elastic decoupling index. Strong decoupling of CECL from economic growth occurred in 2002, 2012, 2014, and 2015, whereas weak decoupling occurred in the rest 13 years. Decoupling is mainly driven by land economic output and energy intensity. Ultimately, we eliminate the influences of land economic output and measure the effort of the five factors on decoupling CECL from economic growth, and indicates the area of construction land as a viable policy tool.