Abstract
Analyzing the driving factors of regional carbon emissions is important for achieving emissions reduction. Based on the Kaya identity and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method, we analyzed the effect of population, economic development, energy intensity, renewable energy penetration, and coefficient on carbon emissions during 1990–2016. Afterwards, we analyzed the contribution rate of sectors’ energy intensity effect and sectors’ economic structure effect to the entire energy intensity. The results showed that the influencing factors have different effects on carbon emissions under different stages. During 1990–2000, economic development and population were the main factors contributing to the increase in carbon emissions, and energy intensity was an important factor to curb the carbon emissions increase. The energy intensity of industry and the economic structure of agriculture were the main factors to promote the decline of entire energy intensity. During 2001–2010, economic growth and emission coefficient were the main drivers to escalate the carbon emissions, and energy intensity was the key factor to offset the carbon emissions growth. The economic structure of transportation, and the energy intensity of industry and service were the main factors contributing to the decline of the entire energy intensity. During 2011–2016, economic growth and energy intensity were the main drivers of enhancing carbon emissions, while the coefficient was the key factor in curbing the growth of carbon emissions. The industry’s economic structure and transportation’s energy intensity were the main factors to promote the decline of the entire energy intensity. Finally, the suggestions of emissions reductions are put forward from the aspects of improving energy efficiency, optimizing energy structure and adjusting industrial structure etc.
Highlights
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) concluded that global air temperature had increased to about 0.85 ◦C over the period 1880–2012, and it is certain that global warming had significantly increased the frequency and intensity of extreme disaster events and losses since the 1970s [1]
Studies have pointed out carbon emissions as the main reason for global warming, which are generated by the overuse of fossil energy consumption in the process of human socio-economic development [2]
In order to respond to climate change, China pledged at the Paris Agreement to a reduction in energy usage intensity of 60–65% compared to 2005, and make efforts to hit a peak of carbon emissions by around 2030 [6]
Summary
The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) concluded that global air temperature had increased to about 0.85 ◦C over the period 1880–2012, and it is certain that global warming had significantly increased the frequency and intensity of extreme disaster events and losses since the 1970s [1]. In December 2015, the international community adopted the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit the rise of the global temperature to 2 ◦C above the pre-industrial level. Another target has been set to achieve the balance between carbon emissions sources and sinks [4]. With the sustained economic growth and rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, China’s carbon emissions will continue to grow in upcoming years. In order to respond to climate change, China pledged at the Paris Agreement to a reduction in energy usage intensity of 60–65% compared to 2005, and make efforts to hit a peak of carbon emissions by around 2030 [6]. The importance and urgency of carbon emissions research are further highlighted by whether China can fulfill its strictest emission reduction commitments while keeping the rapid socio-economic development [7]
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