Decomposition of Regional Development Shifts

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Subject. No breakthrough in the economic development of the Russian Federation could be achieved without the maximum utilisation of the inner regional potential. This implies high relevance of studies concerning the aspects of influence produced by internal and external factors on regional development, as well as analyses of the existing conditions at the macroeconomic level that support or hinder the engagement of inner regional reserves and opportunities in the regions' socioeconomic development. This would make the basis for a more comprehensive view of the regional system and its inherent properties, helping to identify ways to manage regional development. Objectives. Analysis and decomposition of developmental shifts in the Russian regions and their classification based on internal and external influences. Methods. The primary research method is the shift-share analysis method. The methods of logical and statistical analysis, particularly, correlation analysis, are also used. Results. The driver effects of shifts are calculated at the national, industry, and regional levels for 80 regions of the Russian Federation and the period comprising two time points, 2012 and 2017. The regional and industry effects are analysed by the types of economic activities. It is established that, firstly, the regional effect is negative for most regions and, secondly, the industry effect (in combination with the national effect) acts to smooth out the negative regional effect. Conclusions. A conclusion is made that positive shifts can be achieved both in strong and weak regional economies. Generally, the shifts in Russian regions are mostly influenced specifically by the internal regional conditions, which are mostly adverse, suggesting high importance of regional effects. The research highlights the significance of industry policies at the federal level, primarily in economic activities such as agriculture and manufacturing, and the need for improvement of regional policies implemented at the federal level to raise the number of self-developing regions.