Decomposition and Decoupling Analysis of Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions in China’s Regional Logistics Industry

Abstract

This paper selected the data from 2010 to 2020 to measure the carbon emissions of the logistics industry in different regions of China, decomposed the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China’s logistics industry based on the LMDI model, and, finally, conducted a decoupling analysis of carbon emissions and the development of the logistics industry. The conclusions are as follows: (1) China’s carbon emission levels vary greatly from region to region, with the highest distribution pattern in the east and the lowest in the west, while the growth rate in the east is also the highest. (2) The level of economic development has the greatest impact on carbon emissions, and it has the effect of promoting carbon emissions in three regions; logistics development effects have the characteristics of first driving and then restraining emissions in the three major regions. The effect of energy intensity has great volatility. The effect of intensity in the eastern region dropped sharply in 2015, with negative effects after that year. Development of the logistics industry has limited the inhibition of carbon emissions in the central and western regions. Although the effect of the energy structure is negative, it failed the significance test. The effects of the energy structure began to show a downward trend in three regions after 2015. (3) The decoupling analysis showed that only 3 provinces are strongly decoupled, 20 provinces are weakly decoupled, and the regional carbon emissions are quite different.