Decomposition Analysis of Influencing Factors of Electricity Consumption Demand and Intensity under Shanghai’s Transition Development

Abstract

With the transition development of economic structure and energy consumption structure, electricity consumption of the production sector in China has been growing rapidly since the 21st century. The degree of electrification in Shanghai has deepened and electricity plays an increasingly important role in the agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors. This paper analyses the influential factors of Shanghai electricity consumption demand and intensity in the production sector during 1998 and 2017 through Index Decomposition Method. The results show that the energy structure effect has a growing contribution to the electricity consumption demand growth for the production sector in Shanghai since 2008, which implies that the electrification trend in Shanghai has deepened. The impact of energy efficiency improvement in Shanghai overtakes the impact of economic scale effect and energy structure effect, thus leading to electricity intensity decrease in the production sector. Besides, energy efficiency improvement in the manufacturing sector contributes most to power saving in Shanghai. Economic structure transition also contributes to electricity intensity decrease in Shanghai due to the decrease in the scale of the manufacturing sector. So, it is necessary to further tap the space for energy efficiency improvement in manufacturing and service industries and promote electrification when making strategic decisions of transition development, thus leading to green transformation and development of economy and energy.