Decomposition analysis of annual toxicological footprint changes: Application on Japanese industrial sectors, 2001–2015

Abstract

Abstract The intensive production and use of toxic chemicals have resulted in adverse impacts on human health and the ecosystem. In recent years, global interest and need have called for the examination of the impact of environmental management and sustainable growth strategies on human and ecosystem health. Understanding the drivers of chemical pollution can allow more targeted strategies to be developed to reduce the toxicological footprint (ToxF) of economies. Furthermore, examining temporal trends can evaluate the impact of these drivers on the over-all performance of an economy. In Japan, no comprehensive quantitative research on analyzing the main factors of ToxF has been done previously. To address this gap, this work develops a hybrid approach, which integrates input–output analysis and structural decomposition analysis, to identify the socio-economic determinants of changes in ToxF. This study examines the period between 2001 and 2015 using production and consumption-based perspectives at the sectoral level. The Japanese Pollutant Release and Transfer Register (PRTR) database is used as a reference for the toxic chemical releases while the Eora database is utilized to develop annually competitive input-output tables. The results indicate that the overall ToxF from the Japanese industrial sectors decreased by 49% (−154 kt) during the period analyzed. The consumption structure and emission intensity have significantly contributed to the mitigation of ToxF, corresponding to 317 kt (−101%) and 194.5 kt (−62%), respectively. The production structure and consumption volume were the main driving forces for the increase in ToxF contributing 344 kt (110%) and 12.4 kt (4%), respectively. However, population growth had an insignificant effect on ToxF. The results from this time series analysis of ToxF changes, together with the proposed policy implications, are useful for manufacturers, policy makers and other relevant partners. These insights can be used in developing policies for the management of toxic materials and for establishing less toxic supply chains. Furthermore, insights from this work can be utilized to further develop specific indicators for monitoring the environmental impact of toxic chemicals.