Abstract
Vietnam’s rapid economic growth has resulted in serious environmental concerns both at local and global scales. In-depth understanding of the key factors behind the rapid growth of CO2 emissions is of great significance in the development of local and global climate policies. Furthermore, this provides insight into how emerging economies can develop a low emission future. Recent works have demonstrated the effectiveness of the input–output model and structural decomposition analysis in analyzing how changes in different socio-economic factors affect energy-based CO2 emissions in the sectoral level using production and consumption-based perspectives. In the context of Vietnam’s economy, such aspects have not been fully explored in previous literature. This study thus analyzes the driving forces responsible for the increase in CO2 emissions in Vietnam from both production and consumption perspective during periods 2000 – 2007 and 2007 - 2011. The results using the production perspective indicate that during 2000 - 2011 the incremental change in CO2 emissions in Vietnam is driven mainly by the consumption structure (100.5%) and consumption volume (219.4%) which are offset by the decline in technology (-132.7%) and production structure (-22.5%). Population (24.1%) had a small effect on total CO2 emissions. Results using the consumption perspective show that even with large variations between the two periods, household, export and investment are the main drivers responsible for the sharp increase in CO2 emissions. This is offset by the decrease in import factor. Policy implications indicate that improving technology, adjusting production and consumption structure, and optimizing international trade are important factors for alleviating CO2 emissions in Vietnam.
Highlights
The impact of economic production activities on the environment has caused serious global problems such as global warming
4.1 Analysis from the Production Perspective Solving Equation 6 using decomposition methods discussed in the Appendix to account for any change in CO2 emissions using the production perspective, the results indicate that in the 11 years from 2000 to 2011, Vietnam’s energy-related CO2 emissions increased by 188.8% (83,495 kt)
The structural decomposition analysis for the year 2000, 2007 and 2011 reveals how different factors contribute to the change in CO2 emissions (Figure 3)
Summary
The impact of economic production activities on the environment has caused serious global problems such as global warming. Rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mainly CO2 generation, from the continued consumption of fossil fuels remains a main contributor to global warming which has induced climate change. The World Bank (2010) reported that if anthropogenic activities continue to operate at usual conditions, this could result in a 5 oC increase in global temperature but timely and appropriate intervention may limit it within 2 oC. Since 2000, the Vietnamese economy has positively prospered with annual economic growth rates up to above 5% (PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2017). This rapid economic growth was accompanied by increased energy consumption (MNRE, 2014) and resulted in corresponding increases in GHG emissions from the energy sector. In order to mitigate the impact of climate change, the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) developed the Kyoto Protocol which required member countries to jsd.ccsenet.org
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