Declining trend in the estimated annual rupture rate of unruptured cerebral aneurysms in Japan: a nationwide study.

Abstract

The incidence of subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs) in Japan has recently decreased. However, trends in the annual rates of unruptured cerebral aneurysms (UCAs) are unclear because calculations based on follow-up periods are limited to patients with ruptured cerebral aneurysms. We aimed to clarify current trends in the estimated annual rupture rates of UCAs in Japan and to identify the most relevant contributing factors. We analyzed data from the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare and records of the Japan Neurosurgical Society. The estimated annual rupture rates of UCAs between 2003 and 2018 were calculated according to age-adjusted mortality rates of SAH and number of treated ruptured cerebral aneurysms (RCAs). We estimated trends in annual rupture rates using sensitivity analysis and assessed associations between estimated annual rupture rates and the prevalences of hypertension and current smoking. The estimated annual rupture rate of UCAs significantly decreased from 1.44 to 0.87% and from 0.92 to 0.76%, respectively, in terms of age-adjusted mortality rates of SAH and number of treated RCAs (p < 0.001). The range of changes in estimated annual rupture rates of UCAs was - 1.13%‒0.83%, representing a declining UCA trend of 88%. The estimated annual rupture rates of UCAs declined by 0.02-0.10% and 0.01-0.05% with every percent decrease in hypertension and current smoking prevalence, respectively. The estimated annual rupture rate of UCAs has recently decreased in Japan, possibly due to a decrease in the prevalence of hypertension rather than smoking.