Decline of Fossil Fuels in Electricity Required for 1.5°C Target Has Historical Precedents Except in Asia

Abstract

Stopping global warming requires a rapid decline in the use of fossil fuels but the feasibility of such decline is unknown. Here we identify and analyse whether there are historical precedents for the decline of fossil fuels in electricity necessary to meet climate targets. We find that the maximum rates of decline were historically lower in larger electricity systems. In continental-scale systems, the use of specific fuels declined up to 20% of total electricity supply over a decade. These precedents occurred under trade embargoes, post-Communist transitions, or, recently, in wealthy countries with stagnating electricity demand. The speed of decline needed for reaching climate targets does not generally exceed these historically observed rates with the exception of coal power in Asia between 2020-2030 (IQR: 18-34%). Thus, the rates of fossils decline in many climate mitigation pathways are not unprecedented, though their feasibility under growing electricity demand and in younger power fleets is still questionable.