Abstract
Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters.
Highlights
What does it mean when someone says they are undecided about how to vote just weeks before an important election? Do undecided voters truly have no clear preferences? Do they have preferences, but are still weighing all the information at hand? Or, do they lack conscious insight into what their preferences are? Regardless, undecided voters are hard to ignore
Arcuri, and Gawronski [2] proposed that a key to predicting the behavior of undecided voters lies in the distinction between explicit and implicit attitudes
This study found that implicit attitudes predicted voting intentions for both decided and undecided voters, consistent with the idea that voters neglect implicit attitudes when they assess whether they are decided
Summary
What does it mean when someone says they are undecided about how to vote just weeks before an important election? Do undecided voters truly have no clear preferences? Do they have preferences, but are still weighing all the information at hand? Or, do they lack conscious insight into what their preferences are? Regardless, undecided voters are hard to ignore. Less than two months before the 2012 U.S presidential election, five percent of voters in swing states were undecided, and another 17% said they might change their minds [1]. These percentages are more than enough to decide most elections, making the prediction of undecided voters’ behavior an important problem for pollsters and social scientists. Implicit evaluations come to mind whether or not they are endorsed as true They may affect behavior even when their influence is unwanted
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