Decision support in nuclear emergencies

Abstract

In a nuclear emergency, protective actions such as evacuation, sheltering and food bans can be taken to mitigate the consequences of any release of radioactivity. Within the rodos project, an evaluation framework has been developed to support the assessment of the costs and benefits of potential actions. In order to help the decision makers gain insight into the decision problem and clarify their preferences, guidance can be given in three stages. First, the search of feasible portfolios of protective actions is seen as a constraint satisfaction problem; only those portfolios that satisfy constraints depending on factors such as feasibility are worth further evaluation. Second, the portfolios are ranked based on their consequences and the preferences of the decision makers using either a multi-attribute value or utility function. Third, a natural language report explaining the ranking is produced to help the decision makers gain insight into the decision problem and refine the decision parameters. An intelligent decision system has been developed to demonstrate the feasibility of the framework.