Decarceration and prison release effects on crime: a case study of proposition 47

Abstract

ABSTRACT Progressive prosecutors have called for decarceration for many lower-level crimes, but critics claim such measures may cause crime to increase. To date, few studies have investigated the effects of decarceration on crime. In one example of a statewide effort to reduce mass incarceration, California voters passed Proposition 47 in 2014 to reduce penalties for some lower-level crimes. This study examines the effects of Proposition 47 on eight crimes using California county data from 2010 to 2019 and includes the prison release rate as a measure for decarceration. Results indicate higher rates of motor vehicle theft, shoplifting, robbery, and aggravated assault after Proposition 47 went into effect; however, applications and petitions filed under Proposition 47 were associated with lower burglary and shoplifting rates. Additionally, the prison release rate was related to lower levels of larceny, motor vehicle theft, and shoplifting, but it had no effect on violent crimes.