Abstract
SummaryIndia is the third largest CO2 emitter worldwide, and its electricity demand, which is primarily supplied by coal-fired generation, is expected to increase almost threefold over the next twenty years. Here, we simulate 40 scenarios for the 2040 Indian electricity sector, considering uncertainty in future natural gas prices and costs for batteries and variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, under different CO2 emissions limits and renewable portfolio standard (RPS) targets. We find a large-scale expansion of VRE, particularly, solar PV, in most scenarios. Furthermore, energy storage competes with natural gas and coal to provide flexibility to integrate VRE. Given a set of technology assumptions, policies that explicitly limit CO2 emissions are more cost-effective at reducing emissions than RPS policies. The former are also more effective at reducing air pollution than RPS policies by explicitly penalizing CO2 emissions, thereby reducing coal generation more substantially than RPS policies.
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