Decarbonization of economy as a factor of influence on the development of coal industry of the world and Russia

Abstract

Decarbonization of economy, allowing to decrease so called carbon footprint – carbon dioxides emissions due to application energy sources with low carbon content, is one of effective measures to decrease greenhouse gas emissions into atmosphere. Most of countries of the world had ratified the Paris Agreement and confirmed intention to decarbonize economies. It was noted that still in 2020 many countries began to decrease coal consumption and use renewable energy sources for coal substitution for energy generation. Data on the world production of coking coal, export and import of it presented, as well as place of Russia at the world market of coking coal described. Influence of the modern climate “agenda“ in basic countries of the world on the development of coal mining shown. New standards of investment projects financing and their influence on restriction of mining and utilization of coal, considered. Also measures to decrease greenhouse emissions at the production of ferrous metallurgy products, including introduction by EC countries of carbon tariff – European border carbon tax considered. It was highlighted that application of the transborder carbon tax, hydrogen technologies and announced decarbonization can become instruments of effective impact resulting in considerable decrease of market of both energy and coking coals. In the Center of study of coal industry of the world and Russia of the Institute of energy studies two variants of forecasting of world mining of coal elaborated, taking into account existing tendency of transfer to “green” metallurgy and application of hydrogen technologies instead of coke. Due to the first variant a further expanding of steel industry capacities is provided for production of metal with stabilization by 2035 of coking coal mining at the level of 1470 million tons. Beyond the period, the world mining of coking coal most probably will slightly decrease by 2036–2040 down to 1390 million tons. According to the second variant, a decrease of coking coal consumption will take place due to decrease of steel production volumes and due to the transfer to metallurgy decarbonization, implementation of “green” energetics and hydrogen technologies. This variant is characterized by systemic decrease of coking coal mining by 2036–2040 down to 580 million tons.