Decarbonisation of the shipping sector – Time to ban fossil fuels?

Abstract

Shipping contributes roughly 2.8 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and this is projected to increase in the decades to come. The main regulator of the shipping industry, the International Maritime Organization (IMO), bears the responsibility for developing climate change regulation. Yet the IMO decarbonisation target remains only a 50 % reduction by 2050, and, while regulatory measures have been adopted, these mostly focus on increasing the energy efficiency of ships, not the reduction of total sector GHG emissions. The result is that carbon emissions from shipping continue to rise and are projected to increase by anything up to 50 % by 2050. While many studies are undertaken on the impact of efficiency regulations or the potential for market-based mechanisms, we argue in this piece that missing from this discussion is the potential for a target of full decarbonisation, in line with the IPCC recommendation, allied with a complete ban on the use of fossil fuels in shipping by 2050. This policy would provide certainty to the market and allow industry actors to undertake the transition in a level playing field. Without such a clear signal, carriers and shipowners will transition much more slowly to alternative fuels alongside continued long-term use of fossil fuels. We argue that this position should be actively considered and evaluated, with a tapered timeline to phase out the use of fossil fuels by this date. Instead of focusing research only on the marginal gains of partial policies, scholars and policymakers should prepare plans and evaluate scenarios linked to a clear goal of real zero by 2050.