Decadal Variations of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Forced by the 11-Year Insolation Cycle

Abstract

AbstractStatistical evidence suggests that solar activity may affect the atmospheric circulation over East Asia (EA), but the way in which the 11-yr solar radiation cycle affects the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) remains unexplained. Based on one control experiment and four solar-only forcing experiments performed during the Community Earth System Model–Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME) model project, we explore the potential impacts of the 11-yr solar cycle on EASM variability and the physical processes through which solar forcing influences EASM decadal variability. The model results show that the warm season [May–September (MJJAS)] mean precipitation over EA exhibits significant decadal variation with a “northern wet–southern dry” pattern during peak years in the strong 11-yr solar cycle epoch (AD 900–1285), which is in contrast to the absence of decadal signals during the weak 11-yr solar cycle epoch (AD 1400–1535). For the four-member ensemble averaged solar-only forcing experiment, the summer mean precipitation over northern EA is significantly correlated with the solar forcing (r = 0.414, n = 68, p < 0.05) on a decadal time scale during the strong cycle epoch, whereas there is no statistical link between the EASM and solar activity during the weak cycle epoch (r = 0.002, n = 24). A strong, 11-yr solar cycle is also shown to excite an anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) pattern that resembles a cool Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) phase, which has a significant 11-yr periodicity. The associated anomalous North Pacific anticyclone dominates the entire extratropical North Pacific and enhances the southerly monsoon over EA, which results in abundant rainfall over northern EA. We argue that the 11-yr solar cycle affects the EASM decadal variation through excitation of a coupled decadal mode in the Asia–North Pacific region.