Debris Propagation and Spacecraft Survivability Assessment for Catastrophic Mishaps Occurring in Cislunar Periodic Orbits

Abstract

Ongoing international efforts and planned Artemis missions have made more frequent cislunar space travel likely in the coming decades. With this increase in space traffic, it is critical to find methods which provide a safe means for mission readiness. Cislunar periodic orbits may provide reliable means of supporting missions through re-supply, personnel transport, space-based infrastructure development, and space traffic management within the Earth-Moon system. This research seeks to analyze the potential debris-related consequences of a catastrophic explosion on-board spacecraft traveling along cislunar periodic orbits. Specifically, five cislunar periodic orbits are subjected to eight mishap event scenarios each. The cislunar periodic orbits analyzed in this research consist of four custom trajectories created in the circular restricted three-body problem (CR3BP) and one used by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) spacecraft. The debris propagation model following explosive mishap events utilizes bicircular restricted four-body problem (BCR4BP) dynamics and determines trajectories following mishaps for eight varying positions along each cislunar periodic orbit. A spacecraft survivability model is used to quantify risks from the debris to another notional spacecraft in the same periodic orbit as well as the risks to other regions of cislunar space. Results of this research show that spacecraft are likely to be minimally affected if a nearby spacecraft in a cislunar periodic orbit undergoes a breakup event, with probabilities of hazard on the order of 1x10 −11 . It was determined the greatest risk would likely be to spacecraft in orbits near Earth or lunar-centric orbits. Overall, research into cislunar periodic orbit debris propagation enhances operational planning for future Earth-Moon space traffic management and develops an understanding of the debris related consequences of spacecraft mishaps along cislunar periodic orbits.