Data science approach to stock prices forecasting in Indonesia during Covid-19 using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)

Widodo Budiharto

doi:10.1186/s40537-021-00430-0

Abstract

BackgroundStock market process is full of uncertainty; hence stock prices forecasting very important in finance and business. For stockbrokers, understanding trends and supported by prediction software for forecasting is very important for decision making. This paper proposes a data science model for stock prices forecasting in Indonesian exchange based on the statistical computing based on R language and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM).FindingsThe first Covid-19 (Coronavirus disease-19) confirmed case in Indonesia is on 2 March 2020. After that, the composite stock price index has plunged 28% since the start of the year and the share prices of cigarette producers and banks in the midst of the corona pandemic reached their lowest value on March 24, 2020. We use the big data from Bank of Central Asia (BCA) and Bank of Mandiri from Indonesia obtained from Yahoo finance. In our experiments, we visualize the data using data science and predict and simulate the important prices called Open, High, Low and Closing (OHLC) with various parameters.ConclusionsBased on the experiment, data science is very useful for visualization data and our proposed method using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) can be used as predictor in short term data with accuracy 94.57% comes from the short term (1 year) with high epoch in training phase rather than using 3 years training data.

Highlights

Data science is a blend of various tools, algorithms, and machine learning principles with the goal to discover hidden patterns from the raw data
Based on the experiment, data science is very useful for visualization data and our proposed method using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) can be used as predictor in short term data with accuracy 94.57% comes from the short term (1 year) with high epoch in training phase rather than using 3 years training data
This paper proposes an efficient, simple model and algorithm for big data analysis using R language and Long ShortTerm Memory (LSTM) for stock forecasting with improvement and innovation in selecting only short-term data for training phase and able to gives future prediction value and should be very useful for stock prices prediction in Indonesia

Summary

Conclusions

Data science is very useful for visualization data and our proposed method using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) can be used as predictor in short term data with accuracy 94.57% comes from the short term (1 year) with high epoch in training phase rather than using 3 years training data

Introduction

Literature review

Conclusion