Data mining approach for prediction of academic success in open and distance education

Abstract

Predicting and improving the academic achievement of university students is a multifactorial problem. Considering the low success rates and high dropout rates, particularly in open education programs characterized by mass enrollment, academic success is an important research area with its causes and consequences. This study aimed to solve a classification problem (successful or unsuccessful), predict students’ academic success, and identify those at risk. The primary objective was to predict the academic success status with 26,708 students enrolled in Istanbul University open and distance education programs between 2011 and 2017. Predictions were based demographic data and success grades in Turkish, Atatürk's Principles and History of Revolution, English, and Disaster Culture courses. The study utilized classification models from supervised learning algorithms and was conducted using the SPSS Modeler 18 program. Initially, the data was divided into 70% training and 30% test data. Then, models were constructed by using Random Forest, Tree-AS, C&RT, C5.0, CHAID, QUEST, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, NeuralNet, and SVM algorithms. Model performances were compared according to accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, F1 score, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and Matthews Correlation Coefficient criteria. The C&RT model demonstrated the best performance, achieving the highest specificity value of 0.915.