Abstract
The demand for environmental protection and energy utilization transformation has promoted the rapid development of integrated energy systems (IES). Reliability evaluation is a fundamental element in designing IES as it could instruct the planning and operation of IES. This study proposes a novel data-driven reliability improvement and evaluation method considering the three-state reliability model and an optimal service restoration model (OSR). First, a multi-energy flow model is introduced and linearized in order to reduce the computing complexity. Next, a three-state reliability model is developed, considering the transitional process and partial failure mode. Furthermore, an optimal service restoration model is established to determine the best repairment moment for minimizing the load curtailment, and a data-driven reliability evaluation method is developed that integrates OSR and models the stochastic state transition process using the historical measurement data of the smart meters. Finally, the proposed reliability evaluation method is tested on a test IES, and the numerical results validate its effectiveness in evaluating the reliability of IES and improving the overall reliability.
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